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"Gold nine silver ten" no longer commodity weakness continues

wallpapers News 2020-06-14

with the end of October's performance, the commodity market "gold nine silver ten" completely failed. Data display. In October, China's commodity composite index, which tracks the comprehensive performance of commodity prices, fell 0.13% closed down for four consecutive months. Industry insiders expect that despite the sharp decline in the early stage, the falling space for commodities may be gradually limited, but the weak pattern of commodity market will be hard to change due to the slowdown of economic growth the strengthening of the US dollar.

data shows that in the futures market, due to the continued decline of industrial commodities, the prices of major bulk commodities in October continued to be depressed, especially affected by the fall of crude oil futures prices, downstream chemical commodities fell sharply again, the chemical price index tracking the price performance of a package of chemical products in the domestic market fell by more than 4% every month, making the cumulative decline in the second half of the year Over 13%. In the spot market of

, the tracking data of business agencies show that 75% of the 58 important commodity prices in eight major industries that affect the national economy have fallen month on month, especially nonferrous metals energy commodities have become the "hardest hit area". The commodities with a month on month decline of more than 5% are mainly non-ferrous metals, the price of chemical products PTA, which has the largest decline, has dropped by nearly 15% month on month.

"the reasons for the downturn of commodity performance in October can not be ignored is the decline of crude oil the withdrawal of the Fed's easing policy." Liu Xintian, principal analyst of the business community, believes that as a basic energy source, the downward trend of crude oil not only leads to the decline of petrochemical products, but also makes the "PTA", "power of coal" "iron ore" signs of "bottoming out" sign down again. The de foaming is irreversible. The expectation of


"gold nine silver ten" failed, making the market continue to be pessimistic about the performance of the market in the remaining two months of the year. "So far in the second half of the year, the commodity market has been in a state of distress. The market pattern has been basically determined, the possibility of a change is slim. However, the slump may be coming to an end." Liu Xintian believes that in October, the commodity market has appeared the phenomenon of differentiation of commodity even plate performance, which shows that the market has different recognition of the periodic bottom, this is the "precursor" for the market to stop falling stabilize.

such as the crude oil market leading the decline in the current round. The analysis of Xinhu futures shows that, on the whole, the dem of downstream refineries has dropped significantly, while the supply of crude oil market is still high. The weak dem pattern in the US market is unfavorable to the oil price. In addition, the financial market risks are increasing, the oil price may continue to remain low in the later stage.

"the decline of oil price in the early stage is caused by many reasons." On the one h, in terms of supply dem, the US crude oil production reached a 29 year high of 8.951 million barrels as of October 10. At the same time, the crude oil supply in Libya Iraq has gradually recovered from the war. However, in terms of dem, OPEC, IEA the US energy information administration have continuously lowered their dem forecasts, on the other h, the US dollar has continued to be strong Since July, the short position of U.S. crude oil futures options has soared by 80%, showing that speculators' bearish sentiment suppresses international oil prices.

"there are still multiple factors affecting the crude oil market in the future." According to the analysis of Zhuo Chuang information, on the one h, OPEC's "price war" is not a long-term plan. At the OPEC meeting in November, there is a high probability of limiting production keeping the price. Meanwhile, the peak dem for heating oil in winter may come. From December to February of the next year, the dem for heating oil in the northern hemisphere is booming. It is estimated that the global dem for this winter is about 92.18 million barrels / day, slightly higher than the supply 92.01 million barrels / day.

in addition, in the view of some institutions, the cost support of unconventional oil gas in the United States, which has increased greatly in this round of supply, will also be stronger in the future. "At present, the price of crude oil in the United States has fallen to around $80, while the cost of shale oil oil s projects in North America is about US $75-80. Therefore, a drop below $80 may cause some small medium-sized companies to reduce production." Analysts expect.

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