At present, there are about 3300 methanol production enterprises in China

Zhu Li P, deputy director of information marketing department of China Petroleum Chemical Industry Federation, told that the growth of methanol dem is slowing down, the contradiction between production sales is prominent.

enterprise inventory accounts receivable are increasing rapidly.

the contradiction of overcapacity is prominent, new capacity is still being released.

"In the first half of the year, the operating rate of methanol enterprises was about 60%, many enterprises maintained a certain operating rate with the idea of" better profit than market " How to solve this problem? In this regard, Zhaojin futures company methanol analyst Wang Chengming said that methanol enterprises can use futures for hedging.

"Especially in June this year, the methanol futures contract was revised, which is more conducive to the participation of central enterprises.

" Market downturn "it's not so easy now, the competition is very fierce, the pressure of cost is also surging.

It's very good that we can survive.

" Zhang Hua, the person in charge of a methanol production enterprise, told.

It is understood that there are about 3300 methanol production enterprises in China, the cumulative output in the first eight months of this year has reached 24.

42 million tons, the annual production capacity will exceed 62 million tons, the output will be close to 33 million tons.

At present, China's methanol production capacity, output consumption account for more than 50% of the global methanol market.

Industry insiders predict that by 2015, the domestic methanol production capacity will reach 66 million tons, the output will exceed 38 million tons.

"Take Shong as an example.

In 2013, Shong's methanol production capacity accounted for 16.

33% of the country's.

At present, there are 20 methanol production enterprises in Shong, with a total capacity of 4 million tons.

Some methanol production enterprises are still exping production or new projects, so it is estimated that 1.

45 million tons of new capacity will be added Analysts said.

Last week, Inner Mongolia other northwest enterprises shipment in general, affected by the inventory of local light steady decline.

Based on the expectation of price decline in Northwest China, China's trade downstream industries slowed down market trading was light.

In recent years, the traditional downstream enterprises in Shong, Hebei other major sales areas still focus on rigid procurement, there is no large-scale stock plan due to the influence of capital downstream dem.

After the slight rise of ports in East China South China, there was a strong resistance in the downstream.

At present, it is mainly on the wait--see situation, the receiving of goods is slowing down.

"At present, the domestic chemical market is generally declining, methanol may be affected by it.

Although some businesses implement countermeasures, it is still difficult to change the overall situation.

It will take time for the overall market to improve, methanol needs to be adjusted in a narrow range according to the actual shipment situation.

" Analysts' judgment.

"Now the price of methanol continues to decline.

The reference price on the 24th is 2498 yuan / ton, while the quoted price at the beginning of this month was 2578 yuan / ton, a decrease of 3.1%. Some methanol production enterprises in the South even quoted between 2380-2390 yuan / ton, Zibo other places offered 2460 yuan / ton.

I don't know when it will really stabilize.

" Wang Xiaoming, a business manager of a methanol production enterprise in Dongying, said while looking at the quotation of methanol with his mobile phone.

It is understood that methanol futures was launched as early as three years ago.

However, due to the problems of too large contract specifications high single h margin, market attention has not been high the volume of transactions is low, so it is difficult to achieve the desired effect for a long time. Mr. Liu, a methanol trader, told that when methanol futures were launched, he wanted to participate in some investment hedging, but the 50 ton one-h trading threshold made it difficult for him to be interested in it, because from the delivery factory Kula to the sales area, he needed to pay back 100 yuan per ton, the lack of liquidity could not meet his desire to trade frequently.

As the futures tried to modify the contract details, he said he was ready to enter.

"In the current market overall weak situation, when you give yourself a more hedging tools.

" "Based on the size of the modified methanol contract, it only takes more than 1000 yuan to operate the first-h methanol, a threshold of more than 1000 yuan is the only choice for new entrants to the market.

" Wang Chengming said that the reduced methanol futures can bring more flexibility to the funds of speculators hedgers, for arbitrageurs, it can also diversify investment between multiple markets contracts.

The futures market serves the real economy.

For manufacturers to participate in the futures market, Zheng Shang encourages them to hedge more in various promotion training.

However, the domestic futures market is still in rapid growth, some enterprises will inevitably misunderst it.

In his view, for many manufacturing enterprises, hedging is easy to resist temptation, it is difficult to thoroughly implement the hedging scheme.

"Many enterprises will formulate detailed hedging schemes at the initial stage of participating in the futures market.

However, in the process of operation, they are easily separated from the original hedging scheme become speculative trading due to the interest temptation of the futures market.

In this way, you may get huge profits at one time, but you may bring down the enterprise entity next time. ".

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