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Domestic aniline Market is about to touch bottom and turn stable

wallpapers News 2020-11-14

since October, the domestic aniline market continued to decline in July, continue to shock downward to find the bottom. As of November 27, the domestic mainstream transaction price has dropped to about 8000 yuan (ton price, the same below), the low-end price has dropped to 7800-7900 yuan, with a deep drop of more than 11% in two months, setting a new low in four years. The loss area of enterprises continues to exp, resulting in many enterprises stopping production or half stopping production, some enterprises even plan to shut down change production. From the front line of the market, we know that due to the influence of three major factors, such as the recent stop stabilization of raw material pure benzene, the reduction of enterprise load to the limit, the expected reversal of downstream purchasing situation, as well as the promotion of the favorable interest rate reduction policy, the future market of aniline will usher in the turning point from bottom to stability.

according to the analysis of industry insiders, this round of sharp decline in the market is not only due to the weakness of downstream dem the suppression of upstream raw materials, but also affected by the abnormal downstream production reduction weak macro-economy caused by domestic environmental protection governance, which can not fully reflect the market development rules. It is understood that due to the current loss of sales, enterprises around the country are reluctant to sell, began to implement the strategy of reducing the burden protecting the price to cope with the current predicament.

will have the following favorable factors in the future market:

-- pure benzene stops falling stabilizes, forming the basic support

. According to the information from the market feedback, as of November 27, the mainstream transaction price of domestic pure benzene (mainly refers to petroleum benzene) was between 7000 7100 yuan, showing signs of stabilization. Most middlemen downstream manufacturers are worried that the existing inventory is at a low level, once the market turnover will lead to the failure of replenishment. According to the analysis of industry insiders, due to the current price difference between hydrogenated benzene petroleum benzene is relatively large (700-900 yuan), the possibility of rapid rebound of petroleum benzene is small, but the space for further deep drop has been limited, shock stabilization will become the mainstream trend. Therefore, under the background of low pure benzene inventory in current aniline enterprises, once pure benzene stops falling rebounds, the aniline market closely related to the trend of pure benzene will form a basic support, the possibility of rising with it can not be ruled out.

-- the reverse purchasing situation has led to dem support

. It is understood that aniline has fallen to the current price, the self-produced aniline plant of Shong Yantai Wanhua other MDI production enterprises is not as cost-effective as outsourcing. After the maintenance period in November, these enterprises are expected to purchase a large number of foreign enterprises, which will inevitably form a bright spot in procurement, which will inject a warming power into the aniline Market under low load low price. In addition, in November, the abnormal shutdown of downstream enterprises due to the transformation of environmental protection facilities will come to an end. The terminal dem still exists, enterprises such as dyes, auxiliaries, pharmaceuticals pesticides will start operation one after another to resume normal purchasing volume. At the same time, aniline downstream reactive dyes are still in the recovery growth period, as well as a small increase in exports, which provide good support for the current sluggish market.

-- the load of the enterprise has been reduced to the low limit of

. According to incomplete statistics, the comprehensive operating rate of domestic aniline enterprises has dropped to the low level in the past four years, maintained at about 30%, reaching the low limit of production load. According to a number of aniline enterprises in Hebei Jiangsu, according to the current sales price of 8000 yuan, combined with the price of pure benzene, the enterprise has entered a full loss. Aniline sales enterprises without downstream supporting products are facing greater cost pressure, which is one of the reasons why some enterprises plan to stop production change production. A number of production enterprises said that, considering from the cost accounting, the operating rate of each set of equipment has been reduced to less than 40%, the possibility of enterprise profit has been very small. Therefore, based on the current situation of enterprise start-up, there is little room for the market price to fall again. In addition, according to relevant data, the price drop of aniline in the past three months exceeded that of pure benzene by more than 5%, the sharp drop of enterprise load caused by the advanced deep drop also provided support for the market.

-- the interest rate cut is good for the commodity market. In addition, the Central Bank of China announced a sudden interest rate cut on November 21, which is good for the commodity market. According to the announcement, since November 22, the one-year deposit benchmark interest rate of financial institutions has been reduced by 0.25 percentage points to 2.75%, the one-year loan benchmark interest rate has been reduced by 0.4 percentage points to 5.6%. This is the first time that the central bank has cut interest rates since July 2012, triggering the rise of commodity currency commodity prices. The central bank also said that China has basically the basic conditions to further push forward the interest rate marketization reform. China will continue to promote the marketization of deposit interest rates in an orderly manner by issuing large certificates of deposit to enterprises individuals. Some market analysts pointed out that the introduction of the financial easing incentive investment policies will be conducive to the financing of enterprises the expansion of commodity exports. The introduction of the policy is another good foundation to stabilize the future market of aniline, the industry is expected to usher in a new turning point from bottom to stability.

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