Global butadiene supply tends to be balanced or even tight in 2015

reported that due to the weak global synthetic rubber market dem, butadiene market seems to have some surplus this year, most of the time the price showed a downward trend. However, in the long run, the global butadiene market trend will remain tense. With the recovery of dem the development of light ethylene cracking feedstock, the output of C4 feedstock will be further reduced. The continuous downturn of

synthetic rubber market led to the decline of butadiene market. As a "tire manufacturer of the world", China exports 40% of its annual tire production, 50% of which are destined for the European Union the United States. However, on June 3 this year, the United States launched an anti-dumping countervailing investigation into China's passenger light truck tires. The amount involved was as high as US $3 billion, the tariff was expected to reach 60%. To make matters worse, in September, the Eurasian Economic Commission also launched an anti-dumping investigation against some Chinese products. The first to bear the brunt was automobile tires, which undoubtedly dealt a great blow to China's tire export. Affected by this, the spot supply of domestic tire market increased sharply, the competition became more more fierce. The profits of the upstream manufacturers have been sharply reduced, the dem for synthetic rubber plants has been greatly reduced. According to statistics, the global tire dem is still about 10% lower than the peak dem before the economic crisis in 2008. At the same time, the increase of natural rubber production the sharp price reduction also caused serious pressure on synthetic rubber producers. Between October 2013 September 2014, natural rubber prices plummeted by 33%. Asia's synthetic rubber producers have the most significant impact. Because of the negative profits, many synthetic rubber manufacturers have to reduce the operating rate consumption of butadiene. The spot price of butadiene in Asia has been falling for most of the past year, from an average of US $1600 / T in October 2013 to US $1050 / T in CFR Northeast Asia on November 10. In particular, the impact on non upstream downstream integrated manufacturers is more serious. In Asia, most naphtha cracking units are equipped with downstream butadiene extraction, while non integrated producers also need to import C4 feedstock from outside Asia. Due to the high freight cost, it is not impossible to ship C4 from other regions on a regular basis. The situation in North America is not very serious. Its butadiene market supply is only due to the high production operation load of ethylene plant, resulting in a slight surplus of by-product butadiene, IHS said. In the next few months, although some ethylene units will be scheduled for maintenance, it is estimated that the impact will be small, because most of the ethylene cracking units involved use ethane as raw material rather than heavy raw material for producing a large amount of butadiene. Nevertheless, the spot price of butadiene in North America continued to decline. After reaching the peak price of 84 cents / pound in April, it averaged 50 cents / pound in September, even dropped to 45 cents / pound in the week of October 20. In contrast, the decline of butadiene price in Western Europe is too large. In March, the highest spot butadiene was US $1500 / T, which decreased to US $1200 / T in August September, decreased slightly in October. Despite the autumn overhaul season, the butadiene market in Western Europe has been in balance or slightly surplus due to weak export dem is expected to remain stable in the next two months, IHS chemical said. If the world automotive market dem is expected to improve next year, the global butadiene supply will tend to be balanced, even the butadiene market may be tight next year, predicted bill Hyde, senior manager of olefins elastomers at IHS chemicals. IHS forecasts that global butadiene dem will grow by 3.5% in 2015, driven by growing car ownership in developing countries, while C4 supply will not meet dem. Although ethylene production will continue to grow at the same time, less butadiene will be produced due to the development of light ethylene raw materials. At the same time, Europe, as the main export region of butadiene, will further reduce the production of butadiene due to the continuous rationalization of heavy feedstock ethylene producers the reduction of operating rate. Investment in the Middle East may also slow down, butadiene supply in the future will increasingly rely on specialized butadiene plants. According to the latest research report released by big vision research company, the global market value of butadiene is expected to reach US $33.01 billion in 2020. China, India Brazil will boost the global market value of butadiene due to the improvement of the automotive industry the growing dem for tires. The growing dem for high-performance plastics will drive the dem for ABS, which is expected to have a positive impact on the global butadiene market. The research report points out that the global market turnover in 2013 was 10.5 million tons, the global butadiene dem will continue to grow at an average annual growth rate of 4.4% from 2014 to 2020, is expected to reach 14.18 million tons in 2020. The Asia Pacific region has become the largest regional butadiene market, accounting for 53.6% of the global market in 2013. The average annual growth rate of butadiene market in Asia Pacific region is expected to reach 5.5% from 2014 to 2020, while that of Latin America the Middle East is estimated to be 8% from 2014 to 2020.
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