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How much propylene can fall to?

wallpapers News 2020-09-02

Recently, many people have been asking how much propylene can fall.

My unified answer is: "it's hard to say.". Why is it hard to say? Today, I'd like to share my thoughts with you.

Here is a general list of the points I often pay attention to: 1.

Crude oil.

In short, at this stage, I set crude oil at about two points: 70 90 dollars / barrel.

That is to say, under the current situation, if the crude oil is kept between $70-90 / barrel in the future, the influence of oil companies on the propylene market will not change significantly.

However, if it is lower than $70 / barrel, oil companies will become the leading force affecting the downward trend of propylene price, if it is close to or higher than $90 / barrel, it will become the leading force influencing the upward trend of propylene price. 2. Sinopec PetroChina.

Two barrels of oil in the PP market is still quite a voice, PP on the impact of propylene is obvious, so we should often pay attention to their PP inventory, sales situation, production scheduling plan.

Whether to produce more PP or sell more propylene, whether to export or supply each other, what price should be charged in case of export how much impact it will have on the local market, all these should be paid attention to. 3. The contest of oil head coal head on PP.

Whether the two sides continue to fight or reach an agreement will directly determine the amount of propylene sales outside the whole market.

In short, if the coal head continues to depress the PP price by virtue of its own cost advantage, the PP output of the petrochemical system is bound to decrease.

If the PP price drops to a certain extent, both oil coal enterprises may limit the load of PP plant, more propylene will be released from both parties. 4. Dilian.

The discourse power of refining in propylene market is weakening, this trend is obvious.

On the contrary, they are defending the extremely low operating rate of propylene in recent times.

So I would like to refer to the high-end price of propylene in the near future. 5. PDH propane.

Look at the profits.

Why do PDH enterprises dare to take the lead in price reduction? The profits are there.

As of the end of November, the profit of one ton of propylene production is still above 700 yuan.

Regardless of market factors, they have every reason to fully load up.

Focusing on propane means paying attention to their profits.

Of course, the extent to which profits will be reduced will lead to load reduction or even shutdown measures, which is only known by the enterprise itself. 6. MTO / MTP methanol.

Or profit.

Most MTO units produce propylene for their own use, PP is generally provided downstream.

In this way, of course, they have to calculate the cost of methanol procurement plus the production cost.

To what extent do my MTO PP plants operate respectively? If the PP price is not good, do you need to reduce the PP load? As soon as it drops, propylene will come out, so this is something we need to pay attention to.

For several units to be put into operation at the beginning of next year, especially if there is no downstream MTP, they will determine the unit load according to the price of methanol propylene. 7. Import market US gold plate.

I've been saying that foreigners know more about the Chinese market than Chinese people.

You can't accept it.

Japanese Korean people in particular, sometimes their grasp of China's propylene market will surprise me.

So, if you don't have that much energy to study complex markets, it's a shortcut to refer to the forward contracts of the US gold plate in Northeast Asia. 8. Arbitrage windows in Asia.

This is mainly a judgment of "quantity".

For the Chinese market, we only need to pay attention to whether the arbitrage window between Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Southeast Asia the Chinese market is open or not, which determines how much will enter the Chinese market in the future. 9. Arbitrage window of various regions in China.

The difference is that the Chinese market will be more flexible.

Recently, many people have asked whether the low level of wind vane in Shong market will decline.

I said that there is such a trend, but it will still be the preferred base price region of China's Propylene Market in the next 1-2 years.

That is to say, other regions determine the selling price based on the market price of Shong Province, deducting the freight the concession to the middlemen. 10. Operating rate production schedule of production enterprises.

All production enterprises can be included here.

For example, we can know how much propylene Shong refining can produce every day by calculating the operating rate of Shong refining.

In addition, for example, if there is a supporting downstream device, the downstream inventory, profit, short-term production plan, whether there is a large number of outsourcing caused by maintenance temporary shutdown. 11. Downstream products such as PP, Po, octanol, acrylic acid, etc.

, will not be discussed here.

You can pay attention to the operating rate of the industry the purchasing intention of the enterprise in the near future according to the single product or the region.

What we need to remind you is the willingness of enterprises to purchase, maintain the minimum purchase volume (about 3 days) the purchase volume of more than 10 days.

The difference between them is obvious. 12. Operation ideas of middlemen.

All middlemen, regardless of the size of the volume the amount of operation, are nothing more than two situations when they ship goods: steady delivery (reluctant to sell) fast delivery (selling).

This often has a lot to do with the market situation.

If you receive a large quantity just catch up with the production reduction of the local downstream factories, or the market price drops sharply, it is easy to have a "Quilt Set" situation sell at a low price.

When the market is good, it is often the opposite. 13. Market atmosphere.

Any product market has a specific mode, operation method atmosphere.

Market atmosphere is a delicate thing to say.

Only when we go deep into it can we have the most real experience.

For example, some "veteran" will tell you that he feels like he is going to fall, he will feel stable for two days.

However, he may not be able to fully explain what the basis of judgment is.

Maybe it is by virtue of this atmosphere.

If the previous points are all "sword spectrum", then the last one can be said to be "mind method".

Only when combined, can the best effect be achieved.

How much propylene can fall to? Do you have an answer after reading it?.


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