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Review of recent domestic propylene market development

wallpapers News 2020-09-23

in recent months, people generally reflect that the propylene market is becoming more more complex more difficult to underst. In particular, since July this year, northwest coal chemical industry several sets of PDH in East China "took over" to "make trouble", then "honored" to usher in a sharp drop in crude oil. For a moment, people exclaimed that "the market is in disorder!"

so, how to find a way out in a mess? Today I will take you to see the market clearly.

first of all, let's see what is the "culprit" leading to the disorder of Propylene Market:


1. Coal chemical industry

at this stage, coal chemical enterprises have incomparable cost advantages in the production of propylene or polypropylene, which determines that enterprises can arrange production sales flexibly. However, due to the need to open the market seize the market in the early stage, PP products poured into the market at a lower price, resulting in the whole PP market falling into a certain degree of "chaos", which can be regarded as the "fuse" causing the subsequent fluctuation of propylene market.


2. Propane dehydrogenation

are believed to be experienced by many people. Since several sets of PDH were put into operation in East China, the market has become "restless". Here is a brief summary:


at the end of July, the 450000 T / a PDH unit of satellite Petrochemical was put into operation, then qualified products were produced in the first ten days of August; In early September, Haiyue 600000 T / a PDH plant produced qualified products; in late September, Shaoxing Sanyuan 450000 T / a PDH plant produced qualified products. Among them, the propylene produced by satellite Sanyuan is mainly for self use, while the propylene produced by Haiyue is supplied to Sanyuan in the initial stage, the rest is mainly supplied to the surrounding PP plants. However, after the start-up of Sanyuan's PDH device, the sales pressure of Haiyue became greater, especially after entering September, the increase of propylene supply in East China was obviously felt. During this period, the port inventory also increased significantly, which led to frequent low price of propylene at the port, the situation of "no one interested" in import spot for a time, which led to the accelerated decline of the U.S. gold plate.


3. The import market

mentioned above that an important reason for the price decline of imported propylene is the substantial increase of domestic supply. On the other h, naphtha prices continued to fall. Take CFR Japan as an example. At the end of July, it closed at around 950 US dollars / ton. By the middle of October, it had dropped to around 700 US dollars / ton, with a decrease of 250 US dollars / ton. This makes the profit of steam cracking unit in Northeast Asia increase greatly, which gives more profit space for Japanese Korean business firms.

are the main reasons for the continuous decline of imported propylene price in recent years. We can refer to the closing prices of China's main ports. CFR China price was 1470 US dollars / ton at the beginning of August, but fell to 1240 US dollars / ton in the middle of October, with a decrease of 230 US dollars / ton. The converted RMB price is close to 1500 yuan / ton, even exceeding the decline of domestic market. Such a range still appears for the first time after 2008. It is worth mentioning that in the whole process of "spkds" "spkds" in China's market, it is worth mentioning that in the whole process of "spkds" "spkds", the absolute power of production is being enhanced in the whole process. It is expected that the import of propylene will completely end the "inversion" with the domestic market for several years later this year, which will benefit China's domestic import traders downstream producers.


4. Crude oil

during this period, many people use "Crazy" to describe the trend of crude oil price. The author's personal opinion is that the word "Crazy" is exaggerated. In fact, if you think about it carefully, the global dem for crude oil is indeed increasing in recent years, but the growth rate has slowed down significantly compared with the end of the 20th century the first decade of the 21st century. The reason is that the base is too large, the United States OPEC are fanning the flames driven by interests, which has created the illusion that the world's crude oil supply is in serious shortage. If this is not well understood, the author suggests that we take a look at the growth rate of global natural gas dem in recent years. At present, the crude oil price of

is just a process of removing "moisture" returning to a reasonable level. In the case of a large increase in crude oil production in the United States, OPEC has not reduced production, whether there is a "secret agreement" between the two countries or not, whether there are suspicions such as suppressing Russia, in terms of supply dem, the total output has increased, is it not normal for the price to decline

returns to our topic, looking at the domestic market, we should all notice that since the crude oil plummeted, almost all domestic chemical products have entered the downward channel. The author believes that in addition to the reasons for the gradual yield of raw material cost, the influence of mentality can not be ignored. For propylene products, it is unnecessary to say that refineries are sensitive to the decline of crude oil prices. The decline of propylene prices in refineries is the real feedback of cost supply dem. For PDH enterprises, the recent sharp decline in propane price almost "hedges" the cost pressure brought about by the decline of propylene. Before, some people in the industry failed to judge that PDH would be forced to reduce production or even stop production under pressure, which also increased the pessimistic expectations of the market participants for propylene in the future.

in addition to the above mentioned points, such as the trend of downstream product market, operating rate, etc., also directly affect the propylene market price

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